Geopolitics & World-affairs

What Is Happening in the east?

After the unprecedented withdrawal from Kherson and Kharkiv, Russia concentrated its mighty military power on capturing the strategically important city of the Donbas region, Bakhmut. Bakhmut is the administrative center of Donestk oblast. The city draws its name from the Turkic origin, which literally means "Steppe Horse". The battle for Bakhmut has been going on for the last 10 months. It turned into a battle of prestige for both Ukrainian and Russians, and because of that, the battle of Bakhmut is sometimes referred to as the "Stalingrad of Ukraine" by some experts. As we know the battle of Stalingrad decided the fate of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, the same way Bakmut's victory will decide the fate of either side, whether luck will stay with Ukraine or it will be shifted in the favor of Russia. The ferocity of Bakhmut is perplexing the world in a very autistic way that's why it draws a famous phrase called "Meat Grinder"

Now the battle has reached a decisive phase after 10 months. Battle has been raged by Russians because of its strategic importance. Bakhmut is located on strategically supply line between Luhansk and Donetsk. Luhansk has been totally captured by Russian forces last October and they have already drawn a boundary between Luhansk and Ukrainian Kharkiv oblast. If Ukraine lost Bakhmut then it will prove to be a death nail in the Ukrainian coffin. Because Bakhmut also connects two other important towns of Donetsk, Slovyansk & Kramatorsk. Capturing Bakhmut is crucial for Russia because after Bakhmut it will open the floodgate for the Russian forces to invade other Ukrainian oblasts. It will compromise the security of Dinpropetrovesk and Kharkiv. Bakhmut is also at the epicenter of Ukrainian's energy security and economic security. Ukraine has already lost 20% of its land and all coal-rich regions to Russia, losing Bakhmut will be the loss of Ukraine's one of the most industrial-heavy regions of Ukraine. It's like Germany's loss of the Alsace-Lorraine region to France after World war I. Donbas holds 92.4% of the Ukrainian coal reserve. This region not only supplies coal to Ukraine's coal-feed power plants it also supplies coal to other European power plants. A brutal winter is slowly setting over Europe, expert says the war has entered a critical moment, and the outcome of the offensive for Bakhmut will potentially determine what is to come afterward. According to experts, when the ground will freeze then it will be difficult for Ukrainian forces to prevent Russian advancement to the capital Kyiv as well as other important southern cities of Ukraine, especially the southernmost important city Odesa. 

Is Ukraine losing this decisive battle even with full Western support, especially support from the USA?

Bakhmut, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk were fortified by Ukrainian forces after the Russian annexation of Crimea. Ukrainian knew about the consequences of the 2014 Euromaidan revolution which was sponsored by the West to dislodge Ukraine from Russia's influence. According to Germany's former chancellor "Angela Merkel" the "Minsk Agreement" was the camouflage to support Ukraine militarily to use Ukraine against the Russian mighty military front. After the Inception of Russian invasion of Ukraine, the west unconditionally showed their support to Ukraine. They send billions of dollars of advanced weapons to Ukraine to support the Ukrainians' military adventure against Russia.  
Among all western countries, the United States is mostly feeding Ukraine billions of dollars of advanced weapons. They have already sent weapon systems like HIMARS launchers, Howitzer artillery guns, and 80,000 155mm artillery rounds, HUMVEE military vehicles, and to support Ukrainian electricity generation they send about 150 generators. It should be noted here that both houses of the US cleared the defense budget of 2023 with a whopping $847.30 billion, from that sum $800 million has been kept for Ukraine's defense purposes only. 
Germany also sends military assistance to Ukraine, which includes 18 RCH-155 self-propelled artillery systems, 80 pick-up trucks, 100 anti-drone sensors & jammers, 7 load handling trucks 8*6, two hanger tents, and other equipment. Earlier in November, the German government delivered 50 Dingo armored vehicles, which entered services with air assault troops, and 2 tank transporter tractors M1070-Oshkosh. 
Another package of military aid to Ukraine was also approved by the Slovak government. It includes aviation ammunition, warm clothes, and other equipment. Earlier Slovak provided 30-BMP-1 infantry vehicles to Ukraine, in addition, Slovakia is considering the possibility of resuming the production of large-caliber ammunition for Ukraine.
Another European nation Bulgaria provided military support to Ukraine but Bulgaria has kept its support to Ukraine classified due to Russian fear and aggression against its nation. 
The Russian aggression against Ukraine has become ugly after Ukraine's sabotage of the Russian Crimean Kech bridge. That is the power symbol of the Russian occupation of Crimea. They almost destroyed the Russian pride in Crimea and that embarrassed Russia in a very peculiar way. As a consequence of that Russia bombed Ukraine using more than 100 missiles. Since then Russia is raining Ukraine with missiles and Iranian drones. Russia almost destroyed Ukraine's power supply and generation infrastructure. Yesterday, they destroyed one of Ukraine's power plants with its distribution network. Ukraine is reeling under freezing cold. 
Even after that, the USA has expressed its desire to send its most powerful & most complicated "Patriot missile defense system". That angered the Russians and they said that every western military equipment is a legitimate target for Russian defense forces. 

The situation is in Ukraine really grave and volatile because of its dilapidated infrastructure after an indiscriminate Russian bombardment. Ukraine almost lost its 20% of land and 20% of land holds 90% of Ukrainian resources. They lost their grain production zones to Russia even after that Ukrainian president Vllodymyer Zelensky is not coming to his senses. He is too adamant to carry on fighting against the Russian invasion without having a desire for negotiation. Ukraine has to come to its senses that it should take its decision independently without being influenced by the USA. The USA always manipulate countries in the name of democracy, liberty, and sovereignty, they did the same against communism in past but they failed completely. The USA is using Ukraine as a lab rat, and once their experiment is through, they will quickly spit them out. According to the Western media houses, Russia is losing the Bakhmut battle but the truth is far from their own version of the story. Ukraine needs to be watched through a neutral spectacle because Geo-politics is binary its complicated calculus.